from the lexington paper: ""WILD TURKEY numbers dip

Hunters are likely to encounter fewer gobblers this year, but expert says flock will bounce back

By Art Lander Jr.

HERALD-LEADER OUTDOORS WRITER

When Kentucky's spring wild turkey season opens Saturday, April 15, hunters are likely to encounter fewer adult gobblers and a noticeable lack of juvenile birds.
Since 2002, wild turkey numbers and hunter harvest have dipped slightly from historic highs.
"From a biological standpoint, the declines in harvest don't concern me," said Steven Dobey, wild turkey biologist for the Kentucky Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources. "Turkeys are very susceptible to changes in habitat, food availability and weather conditions during the brood-rearing period. Populations are going to fluctuate. Statistically, I don't think these declines are that significant."
The spring season harvest has dropped each year since the record harvest of 28,120 gobblers in 2002, with hunters taking 25,537 bearded birds last spring, according to harvest figures posted on the department's website. "We'll keep a close eye on what happens this spring," Dobey said. "If there are any big declines, we could make adjustments to the season structure."
This year's spring season runs for 23 days through Sunday, May 7, with four full weekends open to hunting, which represents a change from last season. From now on, the spring season will start on the Saturday closest to April 15, and because of calendar shift, the season will start earlier in April, or extend later in May, by a few days.
This lengthening of the season, albeit small, comes at a time when Kentucky's wild turkey flock has been negatively impacted twice in the past 17 months, with poor winter food availability and a drought during the spring nesting period.
While last fall's mast crop was bountiful, acorns and other nuts available to turkeys were practically non-existent the previous year (fall and winter of 2004-05). This may have been a factor in last spring's (2005) poor reproductive rate, the lowest since 1984, which was just 1.8 poults (newly hatched birds) per hen. "Back in the 1990s we averaged 3 to 4 poults per hen," said Dobey.
The state's flock numbers about 200,000, and the best news seems to be that last fall's heavy mast crop, and a relatively mild winter, have put hens in peak condition heading into the breeding season. With a little luck --favorable weather during the spring nesting season -- populations could rebound quickly.
Dobey said the leveling off of harvest since 2002 is a clear indication that the state's flock has stabilized.
Kentucky is one of several states in the region where this appears to have happened, after years of rapid growth.
"South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana and some other states in the Southeast are posting similar trends," Dobey said. "There's still room for flocks (in some areas of Kentucky) to grow, but we're not going to see the dramatic increases (in flock size or hunter harvest) that we did in the past."
In January, Dobey attended the National Wild Turkey Federation annual convention in Nashville, Tenn., and set in on meetings with wild turkey biologists from other states as a member of the NWTF's national technical committee. "What has happened in Kentucky is very similar to what has occurred throughout the region," said Dobey.
Weather conditions during the spring are the most important factor in reproductive success, and ultimately, turkey numbers.
So many things can go wrong with young turkeys. If it's too cold, poults can die of exposure, if it rains too much, there are fewer insects for poults to feed on, and drought stunts vegetation, which the flightless young birds need for food and escape cover.
The one constant in recent years has been increased hunting pressure.
In the past decade, hunter participation in the spring season has increased significantly, and last spring an estimated 70,000 persons hunted, up from 30,000 10 years ago.
Fewer birds and more hunters caused the hunter success rate to drop slightly to 31 percent last spring, from 33 percent in 2004, but overall, hunter success has been excellent in recent years.
Last spring, 23 percent of hunters took two gobblers.
Hunters are going after older, long-bearded gobblers, and passing up jakes (juveniles), Dobey said. "We've had a steady decrease in the percentage of jakes in the harvest, from 35 percent in 1999, to 21 percent (in 2005)."
According to harvest data posted on the department's website, the number of turkeys taken in the last four spring seasons with beards less than seven inches long has declined from 7,221 in 2002, to 5,586 in 2005.
"People value being able to hear gobbling birds, and a lot of hunters are being more selective in the birds they harvest

There saying it's the worst recruitment in 20 years due to drought last spring and summer. I can testify to see much fewer birds than last year.....everyday I would see strutters everyday in several fields on the way to work, haven't even seen one yet this year.

They say it is bad, and then you look at the kill statistics and twenty three per cent of the Ky hunters kill the statewide limit of two gopbblers.....that ia strong statistic, wouldn't you say? Tenn, Ky and Va are going to have to figure out how to deal with populations flucautaions in the birds in the face of a hugely grwoing number of hunters. It may have been al ot easier to re-introduce turkeys, from a biological point of view, than to manage the hunters who now expect a full flock every year, and the flock that wil take the brunt of the increasesd pressure each year..