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| 2006 Hatch report and forcast for spring?! http://vaturkey.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=1239 |
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| Author: | Bird_Hunter [ Wed Mar 08, 2006 5:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | 2006 Hatch report and forcast for spring?! |
I was in a great rush yesterday and while going through the local store in my town I spotted a turkey hunting magazine with "46 state forecast for Spring Gobbler season" or something to that effect on the front cover. I can't remember the name of the magazine but I quickly read what it said about Virginia. It stated that there was a good hatch in the North west portion of the state and that there was a poor hatch for the eastern part of the state. It also said Gary Norman contributed the poor hatch in the eastern part to rainy weather. Did anyone else see this article or have heard other wise? Sorry I don't know what specific magazine it was I was in a real hurry that day but I thought I would share what it said. |
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| Author: | NOLACHUCKEYTOM [ Wed Mar 08, 2006 9:11 pm ] |
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I did not read that story but most biologists that study turkeys do not believe that rainy weather bothers the hatch or survival rate of poults at all!  Storms that result in flooding and flooded nesting areas are another matter entirely as they do result in much poult mortality. Predation results in around 70% to 88% of poult deaths depending upon which research you read!
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| Author: | Gobblenow [ Wed Mar 08, 2006 11:13 pm ] |
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Well two Tennessee boys disagree here...I think a cold wet spring is deadly on poults. ANd the hatch. I am not an exert blologist. But someohow I think most expert biologists would agree that cold and wet and windy weather in the first days of a turkey hatch is a lethal situation for chicks, and thus, for that paritcular portion of the hatch that is exposed to those conditions. Heck, what do I know..I think a four turkey limit is bad for theturkey population. Again I am not an expert biologist. |
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| Author: | NOLACHUCKEYTOM [ Wed Mar 08, 2006 11:35 pm ] |
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Nothing wrong with a little friendly disagreement every now and then!! 
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| Author: | HODY [ Thu Mar 09, 2006 7:31 am ] |
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GN also remember a story done a few years ago by a biologist that suggest rain why nesting was bad as it made the smell (scent) of a turkey stronger which meant easier to find by predators. Might sound silly to some, but did you ever smell a wet Turkey? Just another spin. I also believe a wet spring will affect the hatch especially a cold, wet spring. |
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| Author: | Ed [ Thu Mar 09, 2006 9:33 am ] |
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I believe the weather is the single biggest factor in how many birds make it to be adult turkey. The spring of 2005 in my area is a perfect example. In late May I was seeing lots of hens with large broods. On the last day of May and the first 2 days of June it drizzeled rain and was cold with temps in the low 50 degree range. I have a rain gage and in those 3 days it rained a total of 3 tenths of an inch. It pretty much wiped them out. I saw only 1 hen with any and she had 2 left. Some of the hens renested and we had some reproduction but they were 5 weeks or so younger than usual. It was very obvious around Labor day when it is usually hard to tell poults from adults by size because poults were July size. I hunted with and know Wayne Bailey fairley well and he told me many years ago that a 2 inch thunderstorm was not nearly as bad as 2 days of cold drizzel as the hen would cover the poults in a storm and she would feed in a long time light rain. All it takes is enough rain to keep the grass wet for a couple of days with cold temps and poults will die from hypothermia. |
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| Author: | Freddy [ Thu Mar 09, 2006 10:42 am ] |
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Quote: I did not read that story but most biologists that study turkeys do not believe that rainy weather bothers the hatch or survival rate of poults at all! I'm just curious as to where you heard your information? I know there is a general consensus amoung biologist that a cold wet spring is bad for nesting and poults. If you do a google search you will find hundreds of articles from the countries most respected biologists about the affects of cool weather and moisture on poult survival. Poults at a young age cannot regulate their body temperature and as Ed said will die of hypothermia. Hody also made mention of another concern as well. Here's a statement from several of them... Quote: "Young turkeys, like most ground-dwelling birds, are particularly vulnerable to high mortality when they're hit by rainy, cold conditions; dry weather during and immediately following hatches means higher poult survival. " [quote]"The most devastating impact of weather on wild turkeys occurs during the nesting and brood-rearing period in May and June. Nearly four decades ago, West Virginia biologists learned of an unusual relationship between fall turkey harvests and temperature. Results indicated that the more the May weather departed from normal in regard to temperature and precipitation, the lower the wild turkey harvests would be during the fall hunting season. More recently, biologists in New York have expanded this research. They determined that the annual change in wild turkey populations is largely related to nesting success that year, and nesting success is directly related to precipitation during May. If May precipitation is high, the fall turkey population and harvest are down. A decline in May precipitation means higher fall harvests. May is the period when hens are laying and incubating eggs. Biologists have theorized that when rainfall is abundant during this month, scent conditions make it easier for predators to locate hens on nests. This is referred to as the “wet hen theory†|
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| Author: | Bird_Hunter [ Thu Mar 09, 2006 6:41 pm ] |
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I got a chance today to stop by the store and see what magazine I saw the article in. The name of the magazine is; Turkey Hunting Strategies. I read the forecast for Virginia again to make sure I read it right. It did say there was a good hatch in the Northwest part of the state and a poor hatch in the east and southern part of the state do to a wet and late spring. I also looked at Kentucky, and West Virginia and it stated that their hatch was poor as well do to the same factor. For Tennessee it said there hatch was below average. God Bless |
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| Author: | Gobblenow [ Thu Mar 09, 2006 8:20 pm ] |
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Tenn raised the limit in the face of the worst summer poult to hen ratio in the last 30 years...I am no expert biologist though. |
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| Author: | Bird Dog [ Thu Mar 09, 2006 9:09 pm ] |
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But GN it looks great to the nonresident looking for a place to go$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ |
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| Author: | NOLACHUCKEYTOM [ Thu Mar 09, 2006 9:29 pm ] |
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I never mentioned the word cold in my post, I just stated that rainfall does not kill that many poults. There are huntable populations of turkeys in 49 of the 50 states with the exception being Alaska(could it be the cold?). How is it possible for any poults to survive in Hawaii which receives between 100 and 300 inches if rainfall per year? Anyway I will drop it and good luck to everyone!
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| Author: | hawglips [ Thu Mar 16, 2006 10:16 am ] |
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A cool, wet period when the poults are young spells disaster for the hatch. NC's hatch was poor in '05 for that reason. Hal |
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| Author: | barry [ Sun Mar 26, 2006 2:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | 2006 hatch report and forcast |
Now I don't much, but I do know this: Cold, wet spring weather spells D-E-A-T-H for young poults. barry |
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| Author: | JayMc [ Sun Mar 26, 2006 7:54 pm ] |
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Bird Dog wrote: But GN it looks great to the nonresident looking for a place to go$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Ain't that the truth. Public land here in Mid-TN was overrun with out of staters last year. I hunt out of state so I'm not casting stones, but wow we've got a big neon sign pointing to TN now. |
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| Author: | barry [ Mon Mar 27, 2006 1:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | 2006 hatch report and forecast |
JayMc, you oughta see the out of state plates around here during deer season. From what I find on the internet a Tenn. non-resident license is still over a $100 more than a VA. non-resident license. barry |
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