This summary might shock you but is it hard to argue with the results of these studies.


It is predation of hens that is primarily responsible for eradicating the wild turkey



I saw this on another forum that is turkeys only. It is a summary of the results of hen mortality studies and the results are worth repeating here

"""
Authors: Hubbard, Garner and Klaas, 1993-1996 study in Iowa. 68% survival for adults, 71% for subadults. Coyotes and red fox were the primary source of predation mortality.

Authors: Kurzejeski, Vangilder and Lewis, 1984-1985 study in Missouri, 44% survival. Predation and poaching were the primary sources of mortality.

Authors: Wright, Paisley, Kubisiak, 1988-1994 study in Wisconsin, 53% survival. Predation was the primary source of mortality.

Authors: Palmer, Hurst, Stys, Smith and Burk: 1987-1990 study in Mississippi, 68% survival, predation was the primary source of mortality.

Authors: Roberts, Coffey and Porter, 1990-1993 study in New York, 50% survival, predation, poaching, hunting, and wounding were primary mortality sources.

Authors: Nguyen, Hamr, and Parker, 1999-2001 study in Ontario, 29% survival.

Authors: Moore, Kilgo, Carlisle, Guynn, Davis, 1998-2001 study in South Carolina, 74% survival with bobcats listed as the primary predator.""""""



From Turkeys for Tomorrow""""""And here is a summary of the Iowa turkey study just completed for the 2022 hen survival and poult production.

, FOR 2022:

- A total of 73 hens were marked last winter.

-As of early August, 27 hens have died for a mortality rate of 38%.

-Of 63 hens available to nest starting on May 1, only 7 nests hatched successfully (i.e., hatched at least one egg; 11% hen success rate).

- Of 33 hens marked with GPS transmitters, 7 hens did not incubate a nest, 17 incubated 1 nest, 8 incubated 2 nests, and 1 incubated 3 nests.


- Most of the nest failure was due to predation, however, one nest failed due to hay mowing and one failed due to abandonment by the hen

-The median day of nest failure was 8 days, and a preliminary nest survival model indicates 50% of nests failed by day 10 of incubation.

-Of the 7 nests that successfully hatched, the average clutch size was 9.9 eggs per nest and the average number of eggs hatched was 7.7 eggs per nest.

-Of the 54 eggs that hatched, 18 poults were observed during poult captures conducted within 1-3 days post-hatch and a total of 12 poults were marked with VHF/radio transmitters.

-During 4-week flush counts for 6 of the 7 hens that hatched a nest, a total of 4 poults remained alive. One hen was not flushed because her transmitter failed prior to the 4-week flush count.

Much like the Alabama survey conducted by Dr. Will Gulsby these results clearly show that there is a serious issue in nesting, hatching of a brood, and the survival of a brood. Through a collaborative effort with TFT various state DNRs and Wildlife Biologists hope to identify trends and statistics that are prevalent in all areas where studies are being conducted. This information will prove vital to decisions that can be made to implement changes needed to help the wild turkey survive and prosper."""""

I would agree with the Iowa study. Also the amount of poults I seen on the survey I conducted on base this July and August indicated a good hatch through the 3rd week of July. But then continuing the survey through August the hens I seen with poults earlier there were less poults with the hens. Example is 3 hens were seen by myself and others. The one hen had 2 white wing feathers. The first person to see them it was the 3 hens and 25 poults. I seen them 3 days later, 3 hens 21 poults.
So the 3 and 21 is what I used for the official survey since I was the only one doing it. I seen the same 3 hens and poults from mid july till about the end of August.

The last I seen them, there were the same 3 hens an only 10 poults. The habitat was good where they were hanging at, also the weather was very good. But in that area we have a lot of coyotes. I noticed the same decline in other hens I seen with poults in early to mid July. In fact one hen I seen had 6 poults when I seen her again in the exact same place she had one.

The 2022 wild turkey symposium held in NC the book just came out and just started reading it. Be interesting what they may have to say.


Earl

That's why I started trapping more. I've taken out coon, opossum, and fox. Hope to continue the trend. I think predators have escalated because the fur market was destroyed by our government stopping trade with Russia and China. At least that's what I heard. I simply do it for the turkey and deer.
V

There was a study done by Delta Waterfowl that showed a tremendous uptick in production where a systematic nest predator reduction program was in place. Delta flatly states that "Predator management has proven to be the most effective and efficient approach to increasing duck production."

I would guess turkeys would see similar production benefits.

https://deltawaterfowl.org/predator-management/

I started nest predator trapping on my place in late January. On my 230 acres I caught 17 raccoons in a 10 day span. That's 1 raccoon for every 13.5 acres. No wonder a hen can't lay a nest without one eating it! I'm hoping with the coyote work we've done, in conjunction with the coon trapping, that it will help. Time will tell...

Good work on the coons Freddy, and even better to see you posting. Hope your family is doing great.

turkeysfortomorrow.org
Funding critical research in Tennessee - Turkeys for Tomorrow


Turkeys For Tomorrow is helping restore turkey populations in Tennessee by contributing funding to an ongoing research project in Spring 2023.

Dr. Craig Harper and Dr. David Buehler, both with the University of Tennessee, have led a comprehensive study of wild turkey ecology and management in five counties of south-middle Tennessee for the past six years. Their preliminary findings are both striking and encouraging. In brief, findings indicate low nest success and poult survival as a result of predation is limiting the population, and a two-week delay applied to the hunting season’s opening has not impacted any aspect of reproductive success. By helping fund an additional year of study, Turkeys For Tomorrow will help Harper, Buehler, and their team collect another year of data that will include reproductive success, survival, habitat use, and a predator index, all of which will help provide managers and agencies with information needed to make key decisions related to the impact of predators and season-date decisions on public and private lands.

Because the Tennessee Fish and Wildlife Commission has set the entire state’s spring turkey season later by two weeks for 2023, researchers have the unique opportunity to record and analyze gobbling activity and correlate it to hunter success and satisfaction through the end of May. The opening of turkey season has been delayed by two weeks in five Tennessee counties for the past several years, but that delay did not extend the season — it just subtracted two weeks from the total available hunting time. Beginning in 2023, the season will be moved back two weeks statewide. This move leaves hunters in Tennessee with the same number of days to hunt by extending the season through the end of May. Researchers on the Harper and Buehler project are uniquely positioned to measure gobbling activity through that time and correlate it with hunter success and satisfaction.

“Support from Turkeys For Tomorrow will be critical in allowing us to conduct an additional year of our work to the level at which it should be conducted,” Harper said.

“We believe it’s important to understand what needs to be done, then actively do it,” said Ron Jolly, co-chairman of Turkeys For Tomorrow. “This study confirms what we’ve long believed: predators are limiting turkey reproduction and recruitment into the fall population. Predator numbers likely are at an all-time high, and they are eating turkey eggs and turkey poults at an alarming rate. The Tennessee study is documenting just how much pressure predators are putting on turkey survival. We’re honored to be part of the work Harper and Buehler are conducting.”

Saw this posted on Old Gobbler in the General. Poster said he received this letter from VDGIF via email

“As is often the case with all things hunting, Virginia’s upcoming spring gobbler season offers a mixture of good and bad news. Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources (DWR) Upland Game Bird Biologist Mike Dye believes that hunters should expect solid action; however, turkey numbers have declined in pockets over the past half decade or so.

“Generally, 2-year-old gobblers make up the bulk of the harvest,” he said. “They gobble the most, and are also the age group most likely to come to calls. In 2021, we had a relatively good poult per hen (pph) ratio of 2.7, which was much better than the 2020 and 2022 pph ratios, each of which was 1.9.

“There is a caveat with the 2020 figure, though. That year was the beginning of the pandemic, and staff drove fewer miles looking for birds, which definitely affected the number of sightings. But the reality is that there probably won’t be as many 3-year-olds and jakes around this spring.”

Dye believes the turkey population decline is not because our birds are being overhunted or because of coyotes and other predators.

“Mortality from weather is the number one killer of turkeys, specifically poults under two weeks of age,” he said. “Poults can’t fly up to roost until they are from 10 days to two weeks old. And for the past several springs during that time of vulnerability, we’ve had unseasonably, cold, wet rains. The change in weather patterns and the ill-timed weather events do appear to be linked to changes in the overall climate.

“This isn’t unique to Virginia,” Dye continued. “States all over the Southeast are experiencing the same population changes, and now it’s starting to spread to the Northeast states as well. Some people like to blame the population declines on raccoons and coyotes. But the last 20 years, we haven’t seen a population increase in raccoons, and studies show that coyotes actually may have a positive effect on turkey populations because they prey on some of our nest predators. Hunters often report that they’ve seen coyotes stalking or chasing turkeys. But coyotes are usually about as successful catching healthy, adult turkeys as my dog is catching squirrels in my backyard.”

I posted something earlier that didn’t get to the site here apparently. So if it is a double post I apologize.

Bottom line is that many states and groups have monitored nests with cameras and monitored hens with electronic devices during the nesting season. The resulting fact of those studies is that nest and hen predation is the number one contributor to turkey population declines is IMO clearly established. Not weather. But predation. Not climate change.

Until Va does the kind of scientific study on nests and monitors hen in the same or better methods that many others have done there is zero credibility to the referenced department statements. As they say, “ produce your evidence”. In this instance there is so much evidence to support the deadly role of predators I would be surprised Va study would produce a contrary result .

When was the last time Virginia did a scientific study on the raccoon population In the state. And I don’t mean counting dead raccoons on the higway?

I expect all biologists all are well intentioned

I agree GN. The weather the last two years I thought was great. Virginia with almost two million acres of public land has seen a big decrease especially on NF. Total Lack of brood habitat is the reason and is a travesty of public trust. One thing that has insulated Va from some other states problems is prohibition on baiting deer which subsidizes every nest predator. Trail camera photos of 4-10 coons on bait piles and they wonder why no birds as well as no hogs in va.

Agree with you GN coons,foxes and coyotes do a great deal of damage to birds everywhere,we need more predator hunters and trappers to help populations for all game animals.

Wild Bill

GN that is very true also though having the proper cover for nesting is critical. I started listening to a pod called Wild Turkey Science (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w ... 1666903553), wow its pretty cool a big study in NC revealed a lot of info. On one of the blogs they studied birds across the state coastal, piedmont, and mountains and discovered that all three areas nested in almost the exact timeframe, so that is was the Latitude not the temp. Again it is based on the amount of daylight not the temp.
Pretty cool. Also another guy that is really great to listed to is Dr. Mike Chamberlain AKA wildturkeydoc he has some really amazing things out there one that was very cool was about birds of prey and how they killed turkeys.

I think coons are the major egg eaters but don't forget possums, skunks and crows
Add that to the coyotes, foxes & bobcats preying on poults and nesting hens.
It's a wonder we have any turkeys

GN great stuff. There is a big argument about studies currently. There is a lot of info that I have been researching that shows predation is huge, however the nesting and brood cover is more of an issue. So the thought is if there was better cover the nesting and brood rearing would be safer. Pretty interesting stuff. So basically if we can improve the cover and then do the things like Freddy has by decreasing predators then you get a really big boost. Its kinda like chicken or the egg but it makes sense that we must do better in providing better ground for poults to grow up. Really interesting and I learned a ton in the last few weeks. Switched from Radio to listening to the Wild Turkey Science pods and Dr. Chamberlain. Makes me want to be a Wild Turkey Biologist when I grow up

Ok, the science has been settled, predation is the main killer of Turkey.
That being said, what should we do about it? I hunt and trap predators. I'm saving up for a thermal scope. Just to add to my kit for thinning Predators. What are you all doing?
V