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 Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline widens 
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Post Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline widens
Someone was kind enough to send me the Bill Cochran article at Roaoke.com "discovering" that turkey populations are declining rapidly in many states with prior excellent populations. Of course we have been talking about that here on this board for several years.

Cochran reports:
:"the poor (VA) reproduction showed up in the 2.4 ratio of young birds to adult hen. That’s not robust enough to build a turkey population.
Nearby states have also reported low juvenile-per-hen counts. Maryland’s 2017 count was 2.3, well below the 15-year average of 3. Pennsylvania’s was 2.28. Even these figures were far better than in some states.
In Mississippi, the turkey population is reported to have experienced a dramatic decline. Wildlife officials there say sportsmen can still find good turkey hunting, but if the downward trend continues, that might not be the case in the future."

Heres some more info. Kentucky reports for 2017 hatch survey the lowest poultry recruitment in the history of their surveys. And Ky has by far IMO the most restrictive season and bag limits of any of the S E states. ; Tenn Ga and Alabama generally will not admit how low their recruitment is, but hunters there have noted it appears to be falling dramatically in recent years.

What does all this mean. How could a bird so abundant in the last decade start to fall off fairly dramatically.
Habitat?Not in my opinion from observing where they have prospered in last twenty year it looks the same to my armchair biologist eyes.

Over hunting? Perhaps. Predation? Possibly a serious affect as avian and ground or nest predators are probably as high as they have been in last 100 years in the S E US.

Disease? I think there is like some thing to consider here. We have seen many other avian species decline in the last decade, from grouse to songbirds, and no universal disease has been ID'd other than west nile and a few other avian pox--but nothing definitive as to affect everything with wings. "Trained" Biologists say no all wild animal/bird populations fluctuate; Armchair Biologist like me ask why do all bird species decline at once?

Global warming? :D

Anyway, I do not know how many times I have said "it cannot get any better than this" when describing individual turkey hunts , or an entire turkey season for that matter. Apparently my musing was correct as I look at where it is trending . What a shame to see this continue with no one having a real answer to the decline. Just something to ponder for you guys.

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"even after almost a half-century of hunting of the noblest game bird I am going to confess that I am still in the kindergarten; and I doubt if any human being ever acquires a complete education in this high art."
- Archibald Rutledge


Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:54 am
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Boss Gobbler

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Post Re: Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline wi
Thanks for sharing GN. Some really interesting and alarming numbers. I know that even house sparrow populations have been on the decline for the last 20 years with no real known reason.

I always put some of the turkey population reduction due to the decreasing in trapping however with all the other populations declining I’m not really sure anymore.

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"What gets us jangly is the suddenness of everything. We hunt turkeys because we want to hear them gobble, watch them strut and all that, and we hunt them with shotguns because we want to be close to them when those things occur." - Jim Spencer


Thu Nov 30, 2017 6:11 am
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King of Spring
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Post Re: Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline wi
Don't take this wrong, but our Marines training comes first and foremost.

Yes, all the the factors mentioned above play a part in any wildlife population. I would say the peak in some States was reached back in the early 2000.

Back on the Marine Base here in the 60's and early 70's. The VA biologist Kit Schaffer stated that the Marine base had the most turkeys per square mile as any where in the State. That is why the State trapped a lot and transplanted throughout the State.

Since being here from 1982 on and being involved with the conservation program I can attest to as all the factors stated play a part in the decline of turkey's. But not just the turkey but the very huntable grouse and quail populations that folks from all over came to hunt in the 60's through the mid 80's when the population started to decline. Most of the decline was attributed to growth on the base so far as training and build up of the ares. loss of habitat.

Last year we were only able to plant 40 acres of 54,000 huntable acres due to access to the areas.

We were doing quail surveys up to last year but now where there were some quail holdouts and the population seemed to be coming back a couple of those areas were cleared for training and building.

And the last grouse was heard and spotted in 2000 or 2001.

The deer was once 800 to 1,000 taken a year. Now the last couple years 280 to 310. The past years the base has been trapping and darting does and putting bits in them. Then when the bits fall out we find the fawns with infer red guns and put radio transmitters on them. The predation of the fawns is around 60-70% over the last few years. The base has cut back on deer doe gun days to 3 the last couple of years and the archery DMAP tags.

Forestry is trying to help out with clearing and openings but again thier hands are tied. Just like on our National Forests.

Our poult to ratio this past spring was 2.7. I have noticed on base that when the ratio is 3.0 and above the fall and spring kills over the next 2 years is almost double. The weather this past hatch was not that good and is showing so far in fall kills and hunter surveys. But using the acorn surveys over the years turkey population is good when the mast is good. That is a trend that is very constant year in year out. But with old growth trees around 60 plus years old the secondary does not happen. So with our acorn and secondary growth decline so goes the populations.

This past spring we had 3 birds with avion pox but have not seen any since. I know AP Hill had some with it last fall.

I could go on but bored you all enough, but just my wooden nickel input. How many remember the wooden nickel's?


Earl

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Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:08 am
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King of Spring

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Post Re: Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline wi
There are many cyclical things that causes this type of thing, predator/pray, habitat maturation, etc... I don't think anyone knows for sure. I haven't noticed too much in the way of decline. I just hope it stabilizes.
V

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Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:19 pm
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Co-Owner/Dog Feeder

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Post Re: Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline wi
Kentuckys fall season produced the lowest kill numbers in this century per reports so far.

_________________
"even after almost a half-century of hunting of the noblest game bird I am going to confess that I am still in the kindergarten; and I doubt if any human being ever acquires a complete education in this high art."
- Archibald Rutledge


Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:39 am
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King of Spring
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Post Re: Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline wi
Looks like the total turkey population throughout the US peaked in 2001-2002. According to some reports I have been looking at from many of the States.

But with better land management in our National Forests I believe the turkeys, deer and grouse could come back in those areas.


Earl

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Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:26 pm
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Post Re: Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline wi
Ghost--interesting comment about National Forests or timber management . Today, I would guess less than 15% of turkeys total populations in Tn, WV, Ky, Ga, NC, and Va are in a national forest or on public land. No proof, just a guess. And also guess that perhaps 75% of birds in those states are in areas that are not what anyone would consider to be mountains, but in agricultural lands, and rolling hills, or low ridge and hollow type terrain. Personally i dont think the turkey decline has any thing to do with lack of habitat.

we 've talked about grosue a lot too. Grouse might be affected more by national forest management, but I can show you today hundreds of thousands of acres of privately owned or managed successional cut-over in prime historic southern appalachian grouse covers that are almost barren of grouse, so I have a hard time believing vegetational issues are the porblem with grouse. 2 cents

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"even after almost a half-century of hunting of the noblest game bird I am going to confess that I am still in the kindergarten; and I doubt if any human being ever acquires a complete education in this high art."
- Archibald Rutledge


Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:35 am
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Poult

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Post Re: Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline wi
I don't know where you are hunting - from Bath to Isle of Wight-- I've seen more turkeys than ever before.

One tip, they are not standing close to the road waiting to be shot.


Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:07 pm
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King of Spring
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Post Re: Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline wi
Yea the big turkey populations in King George, Westmorland or what is referred to as the northern neck here has got a great turkey population which is low lying farm type land.


Irishwhiskey, dang those inconsiderate birds, not standing by the roads waiting to be shot :smt003 you mentioned Bath, I got a friend that lives in Bath and he said, he has seen a good turkey population and some grouse returning in his part of the mountains where he lives. But said, he saw 4 years ago where the NWTF and the State and I guess the federal land manager ( I believe it is a women not sure of her name) have gotten together and started clearing some old openings and some timbering along with some new food plots and this past year are seeing some increase of the population although the State says that the poult to hen ratio is 2.3 on most of the National Forests. Now weather or not the projects that have started on our NF is part of that one can only wait and see. I have another friend that lives in Covington, lives on a 450 acre farm surrounded by the NF on three sides and he has said the same that I believe they are of course contractors going in parts of the NF a mile or so from his home reopening old open areas and food plots and this past spring and this fall he and his turkey dog are finding more turkeys then in years past. Lets keep our fingers crossed that this land management continues for the sake of all our wildlife.

GN, I will agree to disagree some on the affects that land management and habitat play a big roll in turkey or other species population. Carrying capacity I believe is one of the tools that biologists use to determine what needs to be done to sustain the wildlife populations. Although your percentage breakdown I believe is a good one.


Good info by all and conversation, this is how I learn a lot.


Merry Christmas to all,


Earl

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Sun Dec 24, 2017 8:50 am
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Post Re: Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline wi
GhosT -my only point is that the turkey decline is occurring significantly in areas with good to great vegetative habitat.

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"even after almost a half-century of hunting of the noblest game bird I am going to confess that I am still in the kindergarten; and I doubt if any human being ever acquires a complete education in this high art."
- Archibald Rutledge


Sun Dec 24, 2017 6:02 pm
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King of Spring
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Post Re: Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline wi
Gobblenow wrote:
GhosT -my only point is that the turkey decline is occurring significantly in areas with good to great vegetative habitat.


I do agree with that. Another point I overlooked and may be associated with your point is some areas have been affected with Avion Pox or black head. NY, PA and some in VA. Although for some reason States are not quick to say. We have had 3 cases here at the Q and AP Hill had some this past year. Although our biologist here and said it was pox one was sent off to GA for testing and came back positive.Although here it was not widespread as what I heard of in NY and PA. Of course the cases are usually related to turkeys eating bad food or I believe in most cases transmitted by mosquitoes.

The following statement that Dr. James Kennamer wrote about for the NWTF that I read once and it basiclly said the following.

2 ranches in TX, the turkey population was nearly wiped out due to the feeding of corn. But that study was connected too a waterfowl study that waterfowl feed on contaminated grains that resulted in thousands of birds being killed.It is noted that the corn that is bagged and even field corn can produce Aflatoxins that produce a fungus in grains, especially corn. Very toxic for turkeys and especially poults.

Feed stores often sell deer corn which may be a lower grade of feed corn than the FDA allows for farm animals because of its potential threat to livestock and humans. Some research has found excessive levels of aflatoxin in deer corn.

There is more info on this in the Wild Turkey Symposium books out there.


Earl

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Sun Dec 24, 2017 8:25 pm
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King of Spring

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Post Re: Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline wi
I think disease and predation are the two main issues. Raptor numbers, rising. Coyote numbers, rising. Turkey hunter numbers, rising. Decoy quality better, more effective turkey hunters ( even those who can't call.)

I do believe turkeys are somewhat nomadic in nature too and move around a lot in the fall and winter looking for better stomping grounds. When they find them they move to them. In western MD they seeded turkeys into many of the mountain areas. One such area is called Dan's mountain. If you go up the mountain there is a shelf they made into meadows and such. Purposely made to improve habitat for the turkeys. I know people who hunted up there years ago and said gobbles came from all over. I hunted it a couple years ago and nothing, not a single gobble. Maybe I was there early season but no sign either. I think the birds decided why stay up on the mountain when I can go into the bottoms with crops and warmer temperatures. Seems at least in western Maryland the mountain areas that held turkeys don't anymore. Not saying there aren't any birds, but fewer. May of just moved on to greener pastures, literally.

Deer adapt quickly to new environments. I would assume turkeys do too.

Just some thoughts.
Vic

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Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:39 pm
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King of Spring
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Post Re: Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline wi
Good points Vic.

Something I just heard about from a couple of reliable sources that a couple turkey biologists are now studying the impact of spring turkey hunting and the disruption to breeding and nesting by the amount of hunting pressure. Since the peak of turkey's population throughout the country around 2001 and the amount of hunters that have got into the sport since the early 90's along with the huge spring commercialization, that along with most States planning on a majority of breeding to be done by the set hunting dates that maybe do to other factors that breeding does not take place as planned that hunter disturbance may be causing interference in the breeding and nesting of turkeys. Causing a lower hen to poult ratio and although a couple of the study sites are seeing about the same amount of turkeys but less breeding and fewer nests due to disturbance.
It will be interesting to see what the next turkey Symposium from turkey biologists have to say on this matter.

I say start with no spring hunting on a couple farms in Prince William county and make them a study site. :lol: p.s. I made you the point of contact there Vaturkeyhntr.


Earl

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Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:52 am
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Post Re: Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline wi
FWIW Kentucky has a very late spring opening date compared to other S E US states. So late that many hunters there complain that the "gobbling peaks are over". when the season opens in that state. Usually its the 15th of April or later.

KY however has a serious decline in progress in last few years. Pretty hard to correlate any "spring hunter mating interruption " theory with these facts as the vast majority of the Ky hens have been bred long before the season ever opens. I can't imagine the Hunter Interference factor is the issue.

Im convinced there e is disease issue as a huge contributor , as yet undiagnosed, that has some significant impacts. Maybe not as much as nest predation but it is a factor.

I am aware of a report and study by a significant group of recognized biologists that , when published, will demonstrate the incredible negative impacts on hens, poults, and nest destruction by footed and winged predation on the S E US turkey populations. IMO that is the prime factor in the current declines.

_________________
"even after almost a half-century of hunting of the noblest game bird I am going to confess that I am still in the kindergarten; and I doubt if any human being ever acquires a complete education in this high art."
- Archibald Rutledge


Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:53 pm
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King of Spring
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Post Re: Have we seen the best of it already? Turkeys decline wi
No doubt predation is a major factor. And yes disease is I believe bad, blackhead and avion pox. NY had it but never admitted it till they were pressed. I stated before 3 cases here on the Q and a few on AP Hill were noted in the last year. The 5 year turkey study done on base here showed owls as one of the main predators. Youts was there. Along with crows and other 4 legged egg eaters. I wish that study could have continued but the lady has moved on to bigger and better things in her career. The sad thing there is no money for turkey surveys any more here on base. Oh but deer, that is wide open. Had to put my jab in, but yes I am thankful for the dedicated turkey biologists through out the US that do get funding to try and figure out what is going on. But is a long slow process.

It will be interesting to see what that study shows so far as hunter interference goes, but will not be completed till 2020 or 21.

REF: The Proceedings of the National Wild Turkey Symposium 11:237-247. Talks some on hunter disturbance with hen nesting. Other parts talk about other things that we are talking about here, all from a scientific biological side. And that is where they will be expanding from for the next symposium in 2020.
Folks these Symposium books are great books for the turkey hunter to have in thier library just for the simple fact how wildlife turkey biologist study all there is and how everything impacts turkey populations. They cover different states and specific studies in that State. It is very detailed scientific, biological study and may answer a lot of turkey hunters questions as to setting hunting dates and why, land management, forest management, habitat, harvest and hunting predation productivity and survival and on and on.


Earl

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Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:14 pm
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